Oil has topped $100, the war rages on, and President Trump on Thursday delivered a message that global markets did not want to hear: the nuclear battle against Iran is just beginning. In a Truth Social post, Trump stated that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is “far greater” in importance than the oil price crisis causing the IEA to record the worst supply shock in global market history. He called Iran an “evil Empire” and pledged to never allow it to go nuclear — a pledge that carries the unmistakable implication that this conflict has considerable distance still to run.
Gulf producers have cut output by approximately 10 million barrels per day — nearly 10% of world demand — while the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. Brent crude gained as much as 10% Thursday to briefly exceed $100 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $96. The IEA deployed 400 million barrels from members’ emergency reserves, and the United States pledged 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite these historic interventions, the crisis continues.
Trump’s Truth Social post delivered the unwelcome message in three parts: America profits from high oil as the world’s largest producer — so the economic argument against the war is weaker for the United States. Iran is an evil empire pursuing nuclear weapons that could destroy the Middle East and the world. And Trump will never allow this to happen — a pledge with no endpoint, no qualification, and no escape hatch. The battle is just beginning.
The signal that the nuclear battle is just beginning is as consequential as any statement a wartime president can make. It tells markets to prepare for prolonged supply disruption. It tells Iran that the pressure will not relent. It tells allies that sustained support is required for the long term. Trump reinforced the signal on Wednesday, telling reporters that US forces have struck Iran with historically unprecedented force and are not finished with the campaign.
Trump dismissed concerns about Iranian attacks on American soil. Oil has topped $100 and the worst supply shock in market history shows no sign of ending. Trump’s nuclear battle is just beginning — and as long as it continues, the global economy will feel every day of its cost.